Is CCL Stock Likely To Beat Earnings?

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is scheduled to release its earnings on Thursday, December 18, 2025. The firm’s current market capitalization stands at $37 billion. Over the past twelve months, the revenue reached $26 billion, and it operated profitably with $4.3 billion in operating profits and a net income of $2.6 billion. Although the stock’s reaction after earnings will rely on how the results and forecast compare to investor expectations, an in-depth examination of historical results can be beneficial if you are a trader driven by events.

This can be achieved by either grasping the historical probabilities and positioning yourself before the earnings announcement or examining the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings and entering a trade a day following the announcement.

View the earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Carnival’s Historical Chances Of Positive Returns After Earnings

Here are some observations regarding one-day (1D) returns after earnings:

• In the last five years, there have been 19 earnings data points recorded, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 53% of the time.
• However, this percentage drops to 50% when we analyze data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• The median of the 10 positive returns is 5.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -4.0%

Further data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings has been summarized along with statistics in the table below.

Relationship Between 1D, 5D And 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation among short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify pairs that show the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves “long” for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.

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