Intel has seen incredible rallies, with several occurrences of gains exceeding 30% within a two-month period. Significantly, the years 2011 and 2024 witnessed substantial surges, including two rallies that jumped more than 50% in short order. History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it often rhymes—and Intel’s track record shows that when momentum turns, it can turn fast. With the right catalysts lining up again, the stock isn’t just capable of another outsized move; it’s primed for one. For investors, the potential upside is not theoretical—it’s historically grounded and increasingly within reach.
Following a year of impressive recovery, with its stock consistently rising, Intel is at an essential turning point, ready for additional advancements. The company’s bold shift toward AI-driven computing, along with the increasing potential of its foundry services, supported by considerable government support and strategic alliances, are crafting a compelling narrative for investors. This renewed momentum, highlighted by recently strong earnings and an updated product strategy, indicates a significant transformation that could push Intel well above its current market valuations.
Triggers That Could Boost The Stock
- Foundry Success: Intel’s 18A process node is in mass production with confirmed clients like Microsoft and AWS, along with significant potential deals with Apple and Google, could re-evaluate its valuation toward $60-65 per share.
- AI PC Leadership: The robust demand for Intel’s new Core Ultra 200V processors and the forthcoming Panther Lake (2H 2025) and Nova Lake (2026) series is set to drive an 83% increase in the AI PC market in 2026.
- Data Center & AI: Growth in the Data Center & AI segment (8% YoY in Q1 2025) is enhanced by new offerings such as Gaudi 3 and Crescent Island, coupled with a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to create tailored chips.
How Strong Are Financials Right Now
Below is a quick comparison of INTC fundamentals with S&P medians.
- Revenue Growth: -1.5% LTM and -7.6% last 3-year average.
- Cash Generation: Approximately -15.8% free cash flow margin and -0.2% operating margin LTM.
- Valuation: Intel stock trades at a P/E multiple of 764.9.
*LTM: Last Twelve Months | If you want more details, read Buy or Sell INTC Stock.
Given Intel’s recent negative revenue growth, decreasing cash generation, and an extremely high price-to-earnings multiple, the underlying fundamentals seem significantly weak. While these issues raise concerns regarding the company’s overall financial condition, it is equally crucial to reflect on how such fundamental weaknesses may affect the stock’s performance during broader market declines.
Risk Quantified
When assessing Intel’s risk, consider how much it declined during significant market sell-offs. It fell around 74% during the Dot-Com Bubble and 55% during the Global Financial Crisis. In the inflation shock of 2022, it decreased by more than 61%. Even less severe incidents, such as the 2018 correction and the Covid pandemic, prompted declines of 25% and 35%, respectively. Therefore, while Intel may possess strong fundamentals, these downturns indicate it remains susceptible when the market heads south.
However, the risk isn’t confined to large market crashes. Stocks may drop even in favorable market conditions — think events like earnings reports, business updates, and changes in outlook. Read INTC Dip Buyer Analyses to explore how the stock has bounced back from steep declines historically.
Still uncertain about INTC stock? Consider a portfolio approach.
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Individual stock selections can be volatile, but remaining invested is what truly matters. A diversified portfolio enables you to stay committed, capture upside, and mitigate downside risks.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, featuring a selection of 30 stocks, has a proven history of comfortably outperforming its benchmark, which includes all three indices — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000. What accounts for this? Collectively, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index; a less turbulent investment experience, as illustrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Read the full article here